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Love the comment about SPY zero. Ben did save capitalism, for now.
good point
hat tip to: http://shor7.com/?ZEUCI short: $GS $AAPl $GOOG $SPX recommended daytrading:: $ES_F $SBUX $BAC $FAS $FAZ $AMZN $POT good luck
BWAHAHAHHHAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
The level of GDP contraction, actual jobless rate (shadowstats.org), M3, commercial real estate bust, Food stamps statistics (34 million and counting) , fudged CPI in relation to SS increases, and so on , we are presently in a 1930's style depression. I suppose this is like one of those Jesuit exercises...Red is Black, Black is White, White is Green. Sure thing muchachos.
9.5 million on unemployment (including emergency extensions), rail traffic down 25%, car sales off 50% or more... all indicate a full blown depression that ultimately will make the 1930's look comfortable by comparison.
Eventually the FED's will have to take the cap off the commodities market allowing speculative investment. When that happens a bushel of wheat will go to 10x the price..oil will be at 200+ a barrel..and so on until it's fullblown Zimbabwe hyperinflation at street level.
It's a fact.
hyperinflation is not about domestic supply/demand for goods and services, it is about international supply/demand for our fiat currency.
White collar salarieed workers are taking a hit, too. CAT is cutting salaried workers pay by up to 50% for the highest level executives, and 10% for the lowwest ranked. Similar story at CLF, STLD, and I'm sure countless others that I'm not aware of. Business Week highlights a marketing executive at a biotech in Denver who had her pay cut from $55K to $41K, and she's happy because at least she still has a job.
The global wage arbitrage is crushing American's standard of living. The boys at MER have been smoking far too many green shoots.
This actually angers me because it is just dumb analysis. If i was an institutional client of MER/BAC i would call the head of research and complain about the stupidity inherent in this drivel.
Exactly what i would NOT want to do, take the last 6 years (cause they were so normal) and extrapoliate to the next 6 years. What is clear to me is this dude wants to take his pay check from the last 6 years and extrapoliate it to the next 6 years.
Watching the elf on Fareed Zakaria - looks like he got some botox.
As an aside, I had some impromptu chats with some interesting people in the past few days, including an energy trader from BlackRock at 1:30am at Cowboys and the CEO of a storage company at the NGX party. The tone of each was that, at least from a qualitative standpoint, we are potentially going to have some very non-linear responses and derivative effects in the gas complex in the next 2 months. How this actually might play out in day-to-day-to-day quantitative terms is still up for debate, but straw-poll consensus was for "swift and painful downward dislocation" in the next while as storage hits capacity. For the CEO, it was clear that many organizations' gas financial Excel models are radically busted. The physical realities are completely different from the paper projection, and has become more pronounced in the last 6 months.
Of course, the traders, engineers and people with boots on the ground understand the relationships and the implications can have some crazy complexities. That's not what the perma-smile sales and marketing teams were trying to impart as they glad-handed.
Everyone else's mileage may vary.
Read up on asymmetric volatility.
Another reason why HFT will doom us all before they even know what hit 'em.
Why would we NOT use first order approximations plugged into Excel? Then how WOULD we make our graphs?
They also send me these great research reports that tell me about the green shoots growing everywhere. Yay Merrill!
man, the more I read zero hedge, the more I want to get out of stocks period.
They really know how to manage risk, oh wait.....
Get your money outta there as soon as possible, learn and manage it yourself don't ever let "smart people" tell you what to do. Totally incompetent.
ok now i just caused a run on 401k accounts.... :)
No more "Eddie Haskell" furrowed brow.
Glad to hear that the U.S. taxpayer is paying for Geithner's Botox treatment.
The next thing he will do is put his reading glasses on and look at us over his glasses.
Shame on the unwashed masses for not trusting this good mensch.
I'm pretty surprised that consumption hasn't fallen further.
It would be different if the US actually produced/manufactured what they consumed, but they don't - it's all imports.
As long as imports decline faster than exports, the GDP will continue to appear to be "stable".
somehow this statement simply is not that conforting to me.
could they please be more reassuring?
Investor's Business Daily Top 100 as of July 14:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post...
Goldman About to Crash
I recall the JPM et. al. were going to crash and burn when gold passed $300 or was it $350, whatever. I think the only thing that crashes GS is film of FBI guys leaving HQ with boxes, or that big meteor with earths name on it. I'm watching the sky. Better odds.
We live in a global economy and the green shoots for this recovery will be coming from China, India, Brazil, etc....
I agree that yields will rise above what ML is forecasting, because the emerging markets will create sufficient demand to crowed out capital for US Treasuries. That is what happens when the kids in DC go on a spending spree and forget about Econ 101 principles.
http://tinyurl.com/lqe73a
good point
hat tip to: http://shor7.com/?ZEUCI short: $GS $AAPl $GOOG $SPX recommended daytrading:: $ES_F $SBUX $BAC $FAS $FAZ $AMZN $POT good luck
The market is up a measly 30% or so off the "WORLD is ending" lows vs the horrendous falls it had starting in Summer 2007. Get off the sideline and decide what you're gonna do...earn 1% in a savings account or buy some world class companies who DO sell internationally like KFT, PG, etc.
Growth in the US will be slow and hard to come by....since most DOW and SP500 Stocks have international components to them I don't see all the fuss. While stocks aint DIRT cheap they are not truly overvalued either on a whole in a stabilization to slow growth environment. I'm sorry but when I see KFT and PG for example trade where they are even after the rallies I know this rally aint over.
You got a BAC trading at 4-5 times normalized earnings...eventually the losses diminish as the earnings overtake them. As long as you understand the war off attrition you can make money in financials.
The bottom line is you can stay so negative as to lose yourself money and that's exactly what's happened on this blog by the sounds of the posters here for months. You got your 7-10% pullback from the June highs...now's the time to buy again...not bash
just understand the big picture. eventually the anti business attitude will be crucified as a new political elite rises again..and the market will soar on real buying demand again.
90% of the people in this country still have their jobs, 90% still pay their mortgage or home eq on time. very easy to lose that reality if you sit on blogs like this or Dennigers daily
http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/
From Sat July 12, 1930:
"Recent rally continued in morning hours; new highs on current rally by US Steel, American Can, Consolidated Gas, AT&T, other majors. Rally petered out later in session on profit-taking. Market also came under pressure from commodity news: wheat plunged to new post-1914 low below 86 cents/bushel, cotton off sharply. Volume turned lower on the decline, many stocks trading in a narrow range. Construction stocks under particular pressure. Banks and trusts lower.
Conservative observers still cautious, although many now believe market has established resistance level likely to hold.
In spite of current overcapacity in steel (production at 60% of capacity), the industry leaders including US Steel, Bethlehem, etc. are still investing in expansion. “It would be a poor country if the big industrial leaders threw up their hands and quit on every little depression”
Auto industry pessimists should realize that with 27M cars on the road, “replacements alone guarantee a fair rate of activity for the industry.”
Tobey & Kirk surveys large number of bankers and corporate officials throughout the country. Reports current business conditions below normal almost everywhere, but increasing confidence in the immediate future; widespread expectation of early fall upturn."
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/07/10/6140...
Does the gubment pay you to go around 'debunking' ala 911?
Where is this real buying demand going to come from? Mars?
http://www.nowpublic.com/tech-biz/after-losing-...
The Great Depression II has begun
If the housing mkt declines another 15%, and it will, then the net worth of homes with mortgages on them will be a BIG FAT ZERO to the homeowner.
We have everything here ready for a suddden collapse like the 55% one in 4 months in 1932 and we have a buhc of thieves at the helm like ken lay. They are all telling you its fine and going to be okay as thery pump out their own stock. I'm sure GS will be short when the collapse comes, which could be tomorrow. Chinaa could be by the midddle of next week!
Steve
Don't watch it.
Correction or Blood on the Streets?
Even Zimbabwe doesn't have a GDP of zero, and as long as there is a single person alive there, it never will. The same is true of if a single S&P company has a positive net worth.
I don't have an opinion on anything else you've posted, I just wanted to clarify a ridiculous assertion.
go to 20:, if No, feel free to figure out the difference at your own pace.
20: Is the global corporate debt level currently satisfied by corporate cash
flows (not talking liquidation - merely impairment)? If No go to 30; if Yes
- Ben Bernanke would love to have you join the spin team.
30: Equities as a class are worthless.